Oct 16th The Hindu Imp News Articles & Editorial

Edition: International Table of Contents

Page 04 : GS 2 : Governance

Chief Election Commissioner Rajiv Kumar criticised the distortion caused by exit polls, highlighting the gap between expectations and actual results.

• He called for transparency in exit poll methodology and self-regulation by media bodies.
• He also condemned news channels for flashing voting trends prematurely, creating unnecessary public confusion before official results are declared.

Analysis of the News

• Exit polls
  • Exit polls in India are conducted after voters cast their ballots to predict election outcomes.
  • Various media agencies and survey organizations carry out these polls.
  • Exit polls estimate trends by sampling voters across different regions and constituencies.
  • They often provide insights into voting patterns but may not always be accurate.
  • Exit polls have sometimes sparked debates due to discrepancies between their predictions and actual election results.
• Impact of Wrong Exit Polls
  • Creates False Expectations: Mismatched exit poll results raise public expectations, leading to frustration when actual results differ.
  • Undermines Election Credibility: Discrepancies between exit polls and real outcomes can cast doubt on the fairness and accuracy of the electoral process.
  • Influences Voter Perception: Misleading polls might sway voter behaviour, altering their expectations of certain candidates or parties.
  • Erodes Trust in Polling Agencies: Repeated inaccuracies reduce public confidence in pollsters and their methodologies.
  • Political Tension: In cases of significant deviation, exit polls can fuel political unrest and disputes over election results.
  • Media Accountability: Lack of transparency in polling methods weakens journalistic responsibility, potentially distorting public discourse.
• Use of Artificial Intelligence for Influence in Elections
  • Targeted Misinformation: AI-driven bots can rapidly spread misinformation to manipulate voter opinions and decision-making.
  • Micro-targeting of Voters: AI enables campaigns to precisely target specific voter groups with tailored ads, influencing electoral outcomes.
  • Deepfake Technology: AI can generate deepfake videos, spreading false narratives or damaging reputations of political figures.
  • Data Mining: AI uses vast voter data to predict preferences and devise strategies to exploit emotional and cognitive biases.
  • Social Media Manipulation: AI can create and operate fake social media accounts to amplify biassed content and sway public opinion.
  • Real-time Monitoring: AI tools can monitor trends and adjust campaign strategies dynamically, affecting voter behaviour during critical phases of elections.

Page 04 : Prelims Fact

India and the U.S. finalised a $3.5-billion deal for 31 MQ-9B armed drones, enhancing India’s Intelligence, Surveillance, and Reconnaissance (ISR) capabilities.

• The procurement includes UAVs for the Navy, Army, and Air Force, with advanced missiles and logistics support.

MQ-9B Armed Drones:

• Manufacturer: Developed by General Atomics.
• Type: Armed high-altitude long-endurance (HALE) remotely piloted aircraft system.
• Purpose: Designed for military applications, including Intelligence, Surveillance, and Reconnaissance (ISR) missions and precision strikes.
• Payload Capacity: Capable of carrying a variety of munitions, such as small missiles and Small Diameter Bombs.
• Endurance: Can fly for up to 40 hours, allowing operations over extensive areas without refuelling.
• Operational Conditions: Functions effectively in all weather conditions.
• Advanced Sensors: Equipped with sophisticated sensors for maritime patrol and anti-submarine warfare missions.

Page 10 : GS 3 : Economy

The 2024 Nobel Prize in Economics was awarded to Daron Acemoglu, Simon Johnson, and James A. Robinson for their work on the role of institutions in economic prosperity.

• Their research highlights how inclusive institutions contribute to long-term growth, while extractive institutions lead to poverty.
• This recognition emphasises the importance of institutional quality in economic development.

Understanding Economic Disparities

• The question of why some countries are rich and others are poor has puzzled economists for a long time.
• Currently, the richest 20% of countries have an average income that is 30 times greater than that of the poorest 20%.
• Since the Industrial Revolution caused a significant gap in living standards between the East and West, various theories have emerged to explain these differences.

Theories Behind Economic Success

• Some theories attribute wealth in the West to the effects of colonialism, while others cite disparities in natural resources.
• Some scholars even suggest that intelligence or random historical events could determine a nation’s economic fate.

Importance of Institutions

• Acemoglu, Johnson, and Robinson argue that the quality of economic and political institutions is the main factor explaining the economic outcomes of countries.
• This idea is extensively detailed in their 2012 book, Why Nations Fail: The Origins of Power, Prosperity, and Poverty, and their 2004 paper, “Institutions as a Fundamental Cause of Long-Run Growth.”
• Institutions that protect property rights encourage hard work, leading to economic growth, while those that permit expropriation can cause stagnation.

Types of Institutions

• The Nobel laureates categorise institutions as either “inclusive” or “extractive.”
• Inclusive institutions promote secure property rights and democracy, while extractive institutions are characterised by insecurity and lack of political freedom.
• They demonstrated that inclusive institutions foster long-term economic growth, whereas extractive ones result in poverty.

Historical Context of Institutions

• The researchers studied how colonisation influenced the types of institutions established in different regions.
• In areas where colonists were unwilling to settle due to high mortality risks, extractive institutions were created, leading to long-term economic challenges.
• In contrast, colonists who settled aimed to establish inclusive institutions that supported investment and economic growth, as seen in the U.S.

Challenges in Implementing Inclusive Institutions

• The Nobel laureates explored why more countries have not adopted inclusive institutions.
• They argue that rulers may prefer extractive institutions that allow for personal gain, thereby resisting reforms that would benefit the broader population.
• These extractive institutions can persist until there is a significant threat of rebellion, prompting some rulers to create more inclusive systems to promote growth.

Page 13 : Prelims Fact

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has projected that global public debt will reach $100 trillion in 2024, nearing 100% of global GDP by 2030.

• This rise is attributed to increased spending pressures and overly optimistic debt forecasts following the COVID-19 pandemic.

Analysis of the news:

• Global public debt is projected to reach a record $100 trillion in 2024, according to the IMF.
• The IMF reports that global public debt will be approximately 93% of global GDP this year and could approach 100% by 2030.
• This figure is 10 percentage points higher than in 2019, prior to the COVID-19 pandemic.
• IMF deputy director, warns that the debt outlook could be worse than expected due to spending pressures from climate change and overly optimistic debt projections.
• A worst-case scenario could see global public debt rise to 115% of GDP by 2026.
• Fiscal adjustments needed to control global public debt range from 3.0% to 4.5% of GDP, nearly double past adjustments.

Location In News : Mount Adams

Mount Adams, Washington’s largest volcano, has recently shown a surge in seismic activity after remaining largely dormant for thousands of years.

About Mount Adams:

• It is a stratovolcano located in Washington State, United States.
• At 12,277 feet (3,742 meters) high and 18 miles (29 kilometers) wide, Mount Adams is the largest active volcano in Washington, surpassing Mount Rainier — the state’s highest peak — by volume.
• Mount Adams lies in the middle of the Mount Adams volcanic field—a 1,250 sq. km area comprising at least 120, mostly basaltic volcanoes that form spatter and scoria cones, shield volcanoes, and some extensive lava flows.
• Mount Adams supports over 10 active glaciers that provide water to the forests, streams, and meadows below.
• The most recent eruption at the site occurred sometime between 3,800 and 7,600 years ago when humanity was still in the Stone Age.

What is a Stratovolcano?

• Stratovolcanoes (also known as composite volcanoes) are tall, steep, and cone-shaped types of volcanoes.
• Unlike flat shield volcanoes, they have higher peaks.
• They are built of successive layers of ash and lava.
• The magma (molten rock) within the volcano is viscous and often contains trapped gas, causing explosive eruptions.
• Stratovolcanoes occur at the margins of tectonic plates, large sections of Earth’s crust that move together.
• The continental plates, composed of less dense material, override the oceanic plates.
• Magma generated from the subducting plate rises and squeezes into cracks, eventually reaching the surface in a volcanic eruption.
• They comprise the largest percentage (~60%) ofthe Earth’s individual volcanoes.
• Approximately 85% of stratovolcanoes are located around the Pacific Ocean, forming what is called the “Ring of Fire.”

Page : 08 Editorial Analysis

Context :

• India’s agricultural focus on maximising yield has led to negative consequences like reduced nutritional value, biodiversity loss, and declining farm profitability.
• The current approach needs to shift toward sustainability by incorporating new indicators such as nutritional output, water efficiency, and biodiversity.
• A holistic strategy is crucial for ensuring food security and environmental resilience.

Introduction: Yield as the Golden Metric

• In India, agriculture has historically been measured by yield—output per unit of land.
• The emphasis on yield helped feed the growing population post-independence.
• However, inputs like water, nutrition, and labour are becoming scarce, and focusing solely on yield now harms the health and well-being of both producers and consumers.

High Yield, Nutritional Losses

• The drive for higher yield has prioritised quantity over quality.
• An ICAR study revealed that high-yielding varieties of rice and wheat have led to a decline in micronutrient density, with significant drops in zinc and iron content.
• This has contributed to micronutrient deficiencies in India, with a third of children under five stunted and two-thirds anaemic, according to the National Family Health Survey.

The Misconception of Yield and Income

• Conventional belief links maximised yield with maximised farmer income, but this isn’t always true.
• Farmers face diminishing returns from fertilisers, requiring more input for the same yield.
• Moreover, maximising yield in a single season doesn’t always lead to year-round maximised output.
• Crop combinations and intercropping strategies, such as sugarcane with chilli or coriander, can provide stable income and higher profitability across seasons.

Yield Focus Leading to Biodiversity Loss

• Yield maximisation has also caused a loss of biodiversity, particularly with the promotion of high-yield varieties.
• India has lost about 1,04,000 varieties of rice since the Green Revolution.
• This biodiversity loss undermines agricultural resilience in the face of climate change challenges like floods and droughts.
• Traditional and local varieties of crops have been proven more resilient, but they have been neglected in favour of high-yielding ones.

Decline of Nutritious Crops and Impact on Diet

• The focus on rice and wheat has caused a decline in the cultivation of nutritious crops like millets.
• Since the 1950s, the area under coarse cereals has decreased by 10 million hectares, while rice and wheat cultivation has increased.
• This has reduced dietary diversity for the average Indian, which negatively affects overall nutrition.

Metrics for Sustainability

• Important metrics like soil biological activity, water-use efficiency, and biodiversity must be mainstreamed.
• Examples include the inclusion of soil organic carbon in soil health cards and Telangana’s AI-powered ‘Saagu Baagu’ project, which provides real-time data to improve farm management.

Measuring Diversity and Resilience

• New metrics should also measure farm and landscape diversity, as well as income diversification.
• A diverse crop landscape is more resilient to economic and environmental shocks than monoculture farming.

Conclusion: Moving Beyond Yield

• While yield maximisation helped India overcome famine, it cannot remain the sole focus in today’s context.
• With increasing climate threats and depleting natural resources, agriculture should focus on nourishing people, sustaining livelihoods, and protecting the environment.
• A new paradigm in agriculture is needed, focusing on multiple outcomes that address nutrition, sustainability, and resilience for future generations.